Electoral calculus

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Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model , which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects. Across the eight general elections from to [8]. It was listed by The Guardian in as one of the " most useful websites", being "the best" for predictions. John Rentoul in The Independent referred to the site after the election. The founder of Electoral Calculus, Martin Baxter, and its sole employee, Marwan Riach, have regularly appeared on UK and international media to offer polling expertise to their audience. Contents move to sidebar hide.

Politics in Spires. Read Edit View history.

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Paul Whiteley correlates Labour and Conservative vote intentions data with the actual polling day results in all UK general elections since Among his findings is the fact that the Conservative vote share consistently appears to be more predictable than that of Labour, suggesting that Labour support is more volatile than Conservative support. The veteran journalist and former president of the polling company YouGov, Peter Kellner, recently revealed one of the worst kept secrets in the polling industry. This is the fact that some pollsters tweak their eve-of-poll forecasts just before a general election because they are afraid of getting it wrong. A pollster who gets it wrong can face significant reputational damage, even though election forecasting is only a relatively minor aspect of their business. They are tempted to adjust their voting intention data and follow the crowd, even if this is not always a good idea. Clearly a likely outcome of a general election if it were to be held now would be a hung Parliament.

Electoral calculus

Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors and local demographics. The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has separate sections for elections in Scotland and Northern Ireland. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant.

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The Independent. The site is based around the employment of scientific techniques on data about the United Kingdom's electoral geography, [1] which can be used to calculate the uniform national swing. Change UK was later removed from the headline prediction ahead of the general election as their poll scores were not statistically significant. Hide this message. You can change your cookie settings at any time. We use cookies to make our services work and collect analytics information. Tell us what you think of this service link opens a new window Is there anything wrong with this page? To use the service, you'll need: to choose the company information you want to be included on the certificate the address you want the certificate to be delivered to UK or international a credit or debit card for payment. Use this service to order a certified copy of a document from a company's filing history. Article Talk. Next accounts made up to 31 May due by 28 February Politics in Spires. Cookies on Companies House services We use cookies to make our services work and collect analytics information. Read Edit View history.

A catastrophic election defeat could lead to the parliamentary Conservative party tilting towards the populist right, Guardian analysis has indicated.

The site was developed by Martin Baxter, [1] who was a financial analyst specialising in mathematical modelling. To use the service, you'll need: to choose the company information you want to be included on the certificate the address you want the certificate to be delivered to UK or international a credit or debit card for payment. Keele University. Retrieved 24 May To use the service, you'll need: to choose the document you want to be certified the address you want the document to be delivered to UK or international a credit or debit card for payment. Retrieved 28 May Retrieved 17 October Across the eight general elections from to [8]. Cookies on Companies House services We use cookies to make our services work and collect analytics information. Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site that attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. Hide this message.